2. Bundesliga Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,417 2. Bundesliga matches (July 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.2 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: away win at 50–60% implied (102 matches): implied 53.9%, actual 46.1% (-7.8 points).
- Draws: implied 26.4% on average, actual 27.1%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 41 | 17.5% | 14.6% | -2.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 376 | 26.3% | 28.5% | +2.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 986 | 35.7% | 35.6% | -0.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 1188 | 44.7% | 45.2% | +0.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 615 | 54.6% | 53.2% | -1.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 182 | 63.6% | 68.7% | +5.1 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 85 | 18.5% | 17.6% | -0.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 3227 | 26.5% | 27.4% | +0.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 104 | 30.6% | 25.0% | -5.6 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 466 | 16.7% | 15.0% | -1.7 pts |
| 20–30% | 1204 | 25.6% | 24.4% | -1.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 1135 | 34.1% | 34.7% | +0.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 489 | 44.2% | 41.7% | -2.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 102 | 53.9% | 46.1% | -7.8 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also 2. Bundesliga results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.