Serie A Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 4,227 Serie A matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.1 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: away win at 50–60% implied (391 matches): implied 54.8%, actual 62.4% (+7.6 points).
- Draws: implied 25.0% on average, actual 25.4%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 52 | 8.2% | 1.9% | -6.3 pts |
| 10–20% | 493 | 15.9% | 12.0% | -3.9 pts |
| 20–30% | 628 | 25.3% | 20.4% | -4.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 760 | 35.2% | 33.6% | -1.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 772 | 44.9% | 43.1% | -1.8 pts |
| 50–60% | 577 | 55.1% | 57.5% | +2.5 pts |
| 60–70% | 505 | 65.0% | 66.3% | +1.3 pts |
| 70–80% | 345 | 74.6% | 76.2% | +1.6 pts |
| 80–90% | 94 | 82.5% | 87.2% | +4.7 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 670 | 16.6% | 15.4% | -1.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 3216 | 26.2% | 26.8% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 333 | 31.2% | 32.7% | +1.5 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 367 | 7.6% | 6.3% | -1.3 pts |
| 10–20% | 911 | 15.0% | 13.9% | -1.0 pts |
| 20–30% | 959 | 25.1% | 22.6% | -2.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 753 | 34.9% | 34.1% | -0.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 518 | 44.9% | 49.4% | +4.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 391 | 54.8% | 62.4% | +7.6 pts |
| 60–70% | 256 | 64.2% | 69.1% | +5.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 67 | 73.6% | 88.1% | +14.5 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Serie A results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.