Premier League Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 4,230 Premier League matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.3 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 80–90% implied (171 matches): implied 83.7%, actual 90.1% (+6.3 points).
- Draws: implied 24.0% on average, actual 23.8%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 100 | 8.1% | 6.0% | -2.1 pts |
| 10–20% | 441 | 15.5% | 15.6% | +0.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 563 | 25.2% | 27.2% | +2.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 791 | 35.5% | 35.3% | -0.2 pts |
| 40–50% | 804 | 45.0% | 43.4% | -1.6 pts |
| 50–60% | 580 | 55.0% | 57.2% | +2.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 446 | 65.1% | 66.6% | +1.5 pts |
| 70–80% | 332 | 75.1% | 69.3% | -5.8 pts |
| 80–90% | 171 | 83.7% | 90.1% | +6.3 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 58 | 8.7% | 8.6% | -0.1 pts |
| 10–20% | 810 | 16.2% | 17.4% | +1.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 3188 | 25.9% | 25.3% | -0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 174 | 30.7% | 30.5% | -0.3 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 418 | 7.0% | 7.4% | +0.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 826 | 15.1% | 15.3% | +0.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 978 | 25.3% | 25.8% | +0.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 799 | 34.7% | 33.3% | -1.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 459 | 44.9% | 44.0% | -0.9 pts |
| 50–60% | 362 | 54.9% | 52.8% | -2.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 251 | 64.3% | 70.5% | +6.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 116 | 74.0% | 77.6% | +3.6 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Premier League results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.