Ligue 1 Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,899 Ligue 1 matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.4 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 50–60% implied (624 matches): implied 54.7%, actual 51.6% (-3.1 points).
- Draws: implied 25.8% on average, actual 25.5%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 55 | 7.9% | 5.5% | -2.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 244 | 15.8% | 13.5% | -2.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 542 | 25.6% | 24.9% | -0.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 797 | 35.7% | 34.0% | -1.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 970 | 45.0% | 47.3% | +2.4 pts |
| 50–60% | 624 | 54.7% | 51.6% | -3.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 392 | 64.9% | 67.3% | +2.4 pts |
| 70–80% | 185 | 74.4% | 76.2% | +1.9 pts |
| 80–90% | 89 | 84.2% | 86.5% | +2.4 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 33 | 8.5% | 6.1% | -2.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 476 | 16.5% | 14.3% | -2.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 2895 | 26.6% | 26.1% | -0.4 pts |
| 30–40% | 494 | 31.1% | 34.0% | +2.9 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 219 | 7.2% | 6.8% | -0.3 pts |
| 10–20% | 791 | 15.4% | 15.0% | -0.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 1220 | 25.1% | 25.9% | +0.8 pts |
| 30–40% | 787 | 34.5% | 33.3% | -1.2 pts |
| 40–50% | 432 | 44.6% | 46.5% | +1.9 pts |
| 50–60% | 249 | 54.6% | 55.4% | +0.8 pts |
| 60–70% | 123 | 64.8% | 66.7% | +1.9 pts |
| 70–80% | 64 | 74.2% | 84.4% | +10.2 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Ligue 1 results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.