La Liga Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 4,252 La Liga matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.8 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 60–70% implied (445 matches): implied 64.8%, actual 72.8% (+8.0 points).
- Draws: implied 25.6% on average, actual 26.0%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 67 | 7.9% | 9.0% | +1.1 pts |
| 10–20% | 318 | 15.8% | 17.6% | +1.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 507 | 25.8% | 22.5% | -3.3 pts |
| 30–40% | 868 | 35.4% | 34.0% | -1.4 pts |
| 40–50% | 971 | 45.0% | 46.5% | +1.6 pts |
| 50–60% | 679 | 55.0% | 54.9% | -0.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 445 | 64.8% | 72.8% | +8.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 244 | 74.8% | 79.5% | +4.7 pts |
| 80–90% | 142 | 84.3% | 84.5% | +0.2 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 66 | 8.1% | 9.1% | +1.0 pts |
| 10–20% | 546 | 15.9% | 13.2% | -2.7 pts |
| 20–30% | 2987 | 26.5% | 27.1% | +0.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 653 | 31.4% | 33.7% | +2.3 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 347 | 6.9% | 5.8% | -1.1 pts |
| 10–20% | 926 | 15.4% | 13.1% | -2.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 1226 | 25.1% | 22.3% | -2.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 828 | 34.7% | 34.2% | -0.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 438 | 44.5% | 47.7% | +3.2 pts |
| 50–60% | 244 | 55.0% | 53.3% | -1.7 pts |
| 60–70% | 150 | 64.4% | 61.3% | -3.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 76 | 74.6% | 76.3% | +1.7 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also La Liga results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.