La Liga 2 Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 5,121 La Liga 2 matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.6 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 60–70% implied (241 matches): implied 63.1%, actual 68.5% (+5.3 points).
- Draws: implied 29.3% on average, actual 30.1%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 53 | 16.7% | 20.8% | +4.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 368 | 26.5% | 25.8% | -0.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 1438 | 35.9% | 35.5% | -0.4 pts |
| 40–50% | 1924 | 45.0% | 46.5% | +1.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 1066 | 54.3% | 56.5% | +2.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 241 | 63.1% | 68.5% | +5.3 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 43 | 18.3% | 18.6% | +0.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 2687 | 27.5% | 28.5% | +0.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 2383 | 31.4% | 32.1% | +0.7 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 34 | 8.4% | 11.8% | +3.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 1084 | 16.8% | 14.4% | -2.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 2340 | 25.1% | 22.6% | -2.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 1296 | 33.9% | 31.7% | -2.2 pts |
| 40–50% | 301 | 44.0% | 46.8% | +2.9 pts |
| 50–60% | 51 | 55.0% | 58.8% | +3.9 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also La Liga 2 results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.