Bundesliga Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,401 Bundesliga matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.6 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 80–90% implied (128 matches): implied 84.5%, actual 79.7% (-4.8 points).
- Draws: implied 23.7% on average, actual 24.6%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 74 | 7.7% | 9.5% | +1.7 pts |
| 10–20% | 246 | 15.4% | 19.1% | +3.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 418 | 25.6% | 28.0% | +2.4 pts |
| 30–40% | 694 | 35.3% | 32.1% | -3.2 pts |
| 40–50% | 782 | 44.9% | 42.8% | -2.1 pts |
| 50–60% | 499 | 55.1% | 57.5% | +2.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 371 | 64.9% | 64.7% | -0.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 186 | 75.0% | 78.0% | +3.0 pts |
| 80–90% | 128 | 84.5% | 79.7% | -4.8 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 64 | 8.5% | 9.4% | +0.9 pts |
| 10–20% | 587 | 16.1% | 16.5% | +0.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 2715 | 25.6% | 26.7% | +1.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 35 | 30.9% | 28.6% | -2.3 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 240 | 6.7% | 5.8% | -0.9 pts |
| 10–20% | 643 | 15.4% | 12.1% | -3.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 868 | 25.1% | 25.7% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 751 | 34.6% | 34.9% | +0.3 pts |
| 40–50% | 419 | 44.5% | 43.0% | -1.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 208 | 54.5% | 54.8% | +0.3 pts |
| 60–70% | 164 | 64.5% | 62.8% | -1.7 pts |
| 70–80% | 82 | 74.9% | 76.8% | +2.0 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Bundesliga results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.