Ligue 2 Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,983 Ligue 2 matches (July 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.7 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 60–70% implied (171 matches): implied 63.4%, actual 67.8% (+4.4 points).
- Draws: implied 29.1% on average, actual 28.8%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 54 | 17.8% | 25.9% | +8.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 515 | 26.3% | 25.0% | -1.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 1209 | 35.5% | 32.6% | -3.0 pts |
| 40–50% | 1300 | 44.9% | 44.8% | -0.1 pts |
| 50–60% | 710 | 54.2% | 57.7% | +3.6 pts |
| 60–70% | 171 | 63.4% | 67.8% | +4.4 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 37 | 18.2% | 8.1% | -10.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 2232 | 27.5% | 25.5% | -2.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 1714 | 31.3% | 33.7% | +2.3 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 689 | 16.8% | 16.5% | -0.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 1586 | 25.1% | 25.6% | +0.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 1176 | 34.4% | 34.2% | -0.2 pts |
| 40–50% | 414 | 44.2% | 47.3% | +3.2 pts |
| 50–60% | 91 | 53.9% | 49.5% | -4.5 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Ligue 2 results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.