National League Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 5,966 National League matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.1 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 70–80% implied (128 matches): implied 73.8%, actual 80.5% (+6.6 points).
- Draws: implied 25.9% on average, actual 25.3%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 205 | 16.7% | 13.2% | -3.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 780 | 25.7% | 27.4% | +1.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 1493 | 35.3% | 32.9% | -2.4 pts |
| 40–50% | 1819 | 44.9% | 45.4% | +0.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 1085 | 54.6% | 53.2% | -1.5 pts |
| 60–70% | 430 | 64.2% | 66.5% | +2.3 pts |
| 70–80% | 128 | 73.8% | 80.5% | +6.6 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 250 | 17.6% | 14.0% | -3.6 pts |
| 20–30% | 5675 | 26.2% | 25.7% | -0.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 40 | 30.5% | 40.0% | +9.5 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 110 | 8.1% | 4.5% | -3.6 pts |
| 10–20% | 936 | 16.1% | 16.7% | +0.6 pts |
| 20–30% | 1901 | 25.3% | 25.9% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 1698 | 34.5% | 35.0% | +0.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 877 | 44.4% | 46.2% | +1.8 pts |
| 50–60% | 343 | 54.3% | 57.4% | +3.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 86 | 63.8% | 68.6% | +4.8 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also National League results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.