EFL Championship Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 6,166 EFL Championship matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.0 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 10–20% implied (162 matches): implied 17.1%, actual 24.1% (+7.0 points).
- Draws: implied 27.1% on average, actual 26.7%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 162 | 17.1% | 24.1% | +7.0 pts |
| 20–30% | 742 | 26.1% | 27.1% | +1.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 1724 | 35.5% | 34.1% | -1.4 pts |
| 40–50% | 1900 | 44.9% | 44.8% | -0.1 pts |
| 50–60% | 1077 | 54.6% | 55.7% | +1.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 447 | 63.9% | 66.9% | +3.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 99 | 73.3% | 77.8% | +4.5 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 179 | 17.8% | 17.9% | +0.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 5594 | 27.2% | 26.8% | -0.4 pts |
| 30–40% | 393 | 30.7% | 29.8% | -0.9 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 89 | 8.5% | 3.4% | -5.1 pts |
| 10–20% | 1033 | 16.2% | 14.8% | -1.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 2189 | 25.3% | 25.2% | -0.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 1796 | 34.5% | 35.7% | +1.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 770 | 44.2% | 46.8% | +2.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 227 | 54.3% | 49.8% | -4.5 pts |
| 60–70% | 55 | 63.6% | 47.3% | -16.4 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also EFL Championship results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.