EFL League Two Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 6,048 EFL League Two matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.0 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: draw at 30–40% implied (206 matches): implied 30.7%, actual 37.9% (+7.1 points).
- Draws: implied 27.2% on average, actual 26.9%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 89 | 17.7% | 13.5% | -4.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 774 | 26.1% | 28.8% | +2.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 1828 | 35.5% | 34.2% | -1.3 pts |
| 40–50% | 1961 | 44.8% | 45.1% | +0.3 pts |
| 50–60% | 1068 | 54.3% | 55.1% | +0.7 pts |
| 60–70% | 300 | 63.4% | 66.7% | +3.2 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 55 | 18.2% | 25.5% | +7.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 5786 | 27.2% | 26.5% | -0.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 206 | 30.7% | 37.9% | +7.1 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 801 | 16.7% | 15.4% | -1.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 2198 | 25.3% | 26.2% | +0.8 pts |
| 30–40% | 1954 | 34.6% | 35.1% | +0.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 846 | 44.2% | 42.2% | -2.0 pts |
| 50–60% | 211 | 53.6% | 54.0% | +0.5 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also EFL League Two results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.