EFL League One Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 6,003 EFL League One matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.4 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: away win at 50–60% implied (290 matches): implied 54.2%, actual 59.3% (+5.1 points).
- Draws: implied 26.7% on average, actual 25.8%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 157 | 17.1% | 14.6% | -2.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 813 | 25.8% | 25.1% | -0.7 pts |
| 30–40% | 1719 | 35.4% | 35.9% | +0.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 1771 | 45.0% | 46.0% | +1.0 pts |
| 50–60% | 1052 | 54.7% | 58.1% | +3.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 426 | 63.9% | 65.5% | +1.6 pts |
| 70–80% | 63 | 73.3% | 79.4% | +6.1 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 121 | 18.2% | 19.8% | +1.7 pts |
| 20–30% | 5767 | 26.8% | 25.9% | -1.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 115 | 30.6% | 31.3% | +0.7 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 52 | 8.7% | 3.8% | -4.9 pts |
| 10–20% | 965 | 16.3% | 14.5% | -1.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 1990 | 25.3% | 23.7% | -1.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 1775 | 34.7% | 35.3% | +0.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 886 | 44.4% | 46.8% | +2.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 290 | 54.2% | 59.3% | +5.1 pts |
| 60–70% | 44 | 63.6% | 56.8% | -6.8 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also EFL League One results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.