Serie B Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 4,422 Serie B matches (September 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.3 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 60–70% implied (168 matches): implied 63.5%, actual 69.6% (+6.1 points).
- Draws: implied 29.0% on average, actual 32.1%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 41 | 17.2% | 19.5% | +2.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 398 | 26.3% | 24.1% | -2.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 1291 | 35.6% | 32.9% | -2.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 1644 | 44.8% | 44.3% | -0.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 861 | 54.4% | 54.8% | +0.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 168 | 63.5% | 69.6% | +6.1 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | 2640 | 27.7% | 29.8% | +2.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 1746 | 31.1% | 35.7% | +4.7 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 826 | 16.8% | 15.4% | -1.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 1947 | 25.2% | 21.8% | -3.4 pts |
| 30–40% | 1207 | 34.3% | 32.6% | -1.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 358 | 43.8% | 43.9% | +0.0 pts |
| 50–60% | 61 | 54.1% | 52.5% | -1.6 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Serie B results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.