Primeira Liga Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,426 Primeira Liga matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.3 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 70–80% implied (282 matches): implied 75.5%, actual 86.9% (+11.4 points).
- Draws: implied 25.2% on average, actual 24.3%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 127 | 8.3% | 7.9% | -0.5 pts |
| 10–20% | 407 | 14.0% | 10.1% | -4.0 pts |
| 20–30% | 240 | 25.3% | 23.8% | -1.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 742 | 36.1% | 35.4% | -0.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 917 | 44.8% | 44.1% | -0.7 pts |
| 50–60% | 328 | 54.4% | 57.3% | +2.9 pts |
| 60–70% | 188 | 64.9% | 67.0% | +2.1 pts |
| 70–80% | 282 | 75.5% | 86.9% | +11.4 pts |
| 80–90% | 195 | 82.6% | 89.2% | +6.6 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 718 | 15.8% | 10.4% | -5.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 1988 | 26.8% | 27.4% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 700 | 30.8% | 29.9% | -1.0 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 429 | 6.8% | 3.3% | -3.5 pts |
| 10–20% | 445 | 15.2% | 12.4% | -2.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 1029 | 25.5% | 24.6% | -0.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 728 | 33.9% | 35.2% | +1.3 pts |
| 40–50% | 207 | 44.5% | 43.5% | -1.0 pts |
| 50–60% | 166 | 55.6% | 60.2% | +4.6 pts |
| 60–70% | 255 | 65.8% | 72.9% | +7.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 159 | 73.7% | 79.9% | +6.2 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Primeira Liga results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.