Greek Super League Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 2,624 Greek Super League matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.8 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 50+ matches: home win at 70–80% implied (221 matches): implied 75.1%, actual 84.2% (+9.0 points).
- Draws: implied 25.7% on average, actual 27.2%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 101 | 7.9% | 7.9% | +0.0 pts |
| 10–20% | 287 | 14.5% | 12.2% | -2.4 pts |
| 20–30% | 232 | 25.4% | 25.0% | -0.4 pts |
| 30–40% | 464 | 36.0% | 31.0% | -5.0 pts |
| 40–50% | 561 | 44.9% | 37.4% | -7.5 pts |
| 50–60% | 369 | 54.6% | 53.4% | -1.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 244 | 64.8% | 68.0% | +3.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 221 | 75.1% | 84.2% | +9.0 pts |
| 80–90% | 142 | 82.8% | 91.5% | +8.8 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 463 | 15.7% | 12.5% | -3.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 1530 | 26.6% | 28.7% | +2.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 613 | 31.2% | 35.1% | +3.8 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 378 | 6.9% | 3.4% | -3.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 516 | 15.2% | 15.7% | +0.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 698 | 25.2% | 25.4% | +0.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 421 | 34.0% | 34.0% | -0.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 195 | 44.7% | 46.7% | +2.0 pts |
| 50–60% | 143 | 55.1% | 52.4% | -2.6 pts |
| 60–70% | 172 | 65.1% | 70.3% | +5.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 89 | 74.0% | 71.9% | -2.1 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Greek Super League results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.