Turkish Super Lig Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,711 Turkish Super Lig matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.0 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: away win at 60–70% implied (103 matches): implied 64.2%, actual 71.8% (+7.6 points).
- Draws: implied 25.5% on average, actual 25.5%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 218 | 16.3% | 14.2% | -2.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 459 | 25.5% | 23.3% | -2.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 778 | 35.5% | 37.0% | +1.5 pts |
| 40–50% | 1050 | 45.0% | 45.8% | +0.8 pts |
| 50–60% | 601 | 54.6% | 57.1% | +2.5 pts |
| 60–70% | 375 | 64.9% | 69.1% | +4.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 188 | 74.3% | 80.9% | +6.6 pts |
| 80–90% | 30 | 82.8% | 90.0% | +7.2 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 377 | 16.9% | 13.3% | -3.7 pts |
| 20–30% | 3219 | 26.3% | 26.6% | +0.3 pts |
| 30–40% | 108 | 30.6% | 35.2% | +4.6 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 142 | 7.9% | 4.9% | -3.0 pts |
| 10–20% | 736 | 15.5% | 13.3% | -2.2 pts |
| 20–30% | 1145 | 25.3% | 21.3% | -4.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 880 | 34.2% | 32.4% | -1.9 pts |
| 40–50% | 441 | 44.6% | 45.4% | +0.7 pts |
| 50–60% | 241 | 54.6% | 61.8% | +7.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 103 | 64.2% | 71.8% | +7.6 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Turkish Super Lig results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.