Eredivisie Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 3,354 Eredivisie matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.4 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 100+ matches: home win at 80–90% implied (194 matches): implied 84.0%, actual 90.2% (+6.2 points).
- Draws: implied 22.8% on average, actual 23.7%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 108 | 8.0% | 8.3% | +0.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 330 | 15.4% | 13.6% | -1.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 408 | 25.4% | 22.8% | -2.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 552 | 35.3% | 33.7% | -1.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 644 | 45.0% | 46.7% | +1.7 pts |
| 50–60% | 463 | 55.2% | 56.2% | +1.0 pts |
| 60–70% | 380 | 64.9% | 61.8% | -3.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 270 | 74.8% | 73.7% | -1.1 pts |
| 80–90% | 194 | 84.0% | 90.2% | +6.2 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 77 | 8.3% | 6.5% | -1.8 pts |
| 10–20% | 790 | 16.1% | 17.3% | +1.3 pts |
| 20–30% | 2482 | 25.4% | 26.2% | +0.9 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 385 | 6.9% | 5.5% | -1.4 pts |
| 10–20% | 674 | 15.3% | 12.8% | -2.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 708 | 25.3% | 24.7% | -0.5 pts |
| 30–40% | 601 | 34.7% | 34.8% | +0.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 383 | 44.7% | 43.6% | -1.1 pts |
| 50–60% | 249 | 54.8% | 59.0% | +4.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 204 | 64.6% | 64.7% | +0.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 121 | 74.5% | 74.4% | -0.2 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Eredivisie results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.