Scottish Championship Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 1,928 Scottish Championship matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 2.0 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 50+ matches: home win at 70–80% implied (57 matches): implied 74.2%, actual 84.2% (+10.0 points).
- Draws: implied 25.8% on average, actual 28.0%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 107 | 16.4% | 15.9% | -0.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 277 | 25.7% | 23.5% | -2.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 492 | 35.1% | 34.3% | -0.8 pts |
| 40–50% | 501 | 44.7% | 46.3% | +1.6 pts |
| 50–60% | 320 | 54.7% | 50.0% | -4.7 pts |
| 60–70% | 143 | 64.2% | 62.2% | -2.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 57 | 74.2% | 84.2% | +10.0 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 124 | 16.8% | 18.5% | +1.7 pts |
| 20–30% | 1744 | 26.3% | 28.4% | +2.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 57 | 31.0% | 35.1% | +4.1 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 57 | 7.6% | 1.8% | -5.9 pts |
| 10–20% | 312 | 16.1% | 17.6% | +1.6 pts |
| 20–30% | 526 | 25.2% | 24.9% | -0.3 pts |
| 30–40% | 537 | 34.6% | 33.9% | -0.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 295 | 44.3% | 38.6% | -5.7 pts |
| 50–60% | 136 | 54.7% | 54.4% | -0.3 pts |
| 60–70% | 43 | 64.4% | 55.8% | -8.5 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Scottish Championship results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.