Scottish Premiership Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 2,499 Scottish Premiership matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.4 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 50+ matches: draw at 30–40% implied (106 matches): implied 30.8%, actual 23.6% (-7.2 points).
- Draws: implied 24.4% on average, actual 23.9%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 123 | 7.9% | 8.1% | +0.2 pts |
| 10–20% | 235 | 14.8% | 14.0% | -0.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 275 | 25.6% | 26.2% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 554 | 35.7% | 35.6% | -0.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 508 | 44.9% | 43.5% | -1.4 pts |
| 50–60% | 330 | 54.3% | 59.1% | +4.7 pts |
| 60–70% | 175 | 64.2% | 64.0% | -0.2 pts |
| 70–80% | 160 | 75.2% | 81.2% | +6.1 pts |
| 80–90% | 138 | 83.1% | 87.0% | +3.8 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 514 | 15.6% | 15.0% | -0.6 pts |
| 20–30% | 1854 | 26.7% | 26.6% | -0.0 pts |
| 30–40% | 106 | 30.8% | 23.6% | -7.2 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 267 | 6.8% | 3.0% | -3.8 pts |
| 10–20% | 373 | 15.6% | 13.7% | -2.0 pts |
| 20–30% | 604 | 25.3% | 25.8% | +0.6 pts |
| 30–40% | 576 | 34.8% | 36.5% | +1.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 246 | 44.5% | 40.7% | -3.9 pts |
| 50–60% | 150 | 54.8% | 56.0% | +1.2 pts |
| 60–70% | 122 | 65.1% | 63.1% | -2.0 pts |
| 70–80% | 140 | 74.6% | 77.1% | +2.5 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Scottish Premiership results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.