Scottish League Two Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 1,905 Scottish League Two matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.7 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 50+ matches: home win at 20–30% implied (235 matches): implied 25.9%, actual 30.6% (+4.8 points).
- Draws: implied 25.2% on average, actual 23.7%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 84 | 15.9% | 14.3% | -1.6 pts |
| 20–30% | 235 | 25.9% | 30.6% | +4.8 pts |
| 30–40% | 494 | 35.5% | 34.4% | -1.1 pts |
| 40–50% | 578 | 44.7% | 46.4% | +1.7 pts |
| 50–60% | 343 | 54.5% | 54.8% | +0.3 pts |
| 60–70% | 115 | 64.3% | 60.0% | -4.3 pts |
| 70–80% | 42 | 73.6% | 78.6% | +5.0 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 105 | 17.4% | 13.3% | -4.1 pts |
| 20–30% | 1789 | 25.6% | 24.2% | -1.4 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 33 | 7.8% | 3.0% | -4.8 pts |
| 10–20% | 259 | 16.3% | 20.1% | +3.8 pts |
| 20–30% | 565 | 25.4% | 25.3% | -0.1 pts |
| 30–40% | 605 | 34.6% | 36.2% | +1.6 pts |
| 40–50% | 279 | 44.5% | 43.7% | -0.8 pts |
| 50–60% | 102 | 54.4% | 51.0% | -3.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 49 | 63.9% | 69.4% | +5.4 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Scottish League Two results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.