Scottish League One Odds vs Actual Results
Do bookmaker odds match reality? We removed the bookmaker margin from Bet365 pre-match 1X2 odds in 1,902 Scottish League One matches (August 2015 – September 2026) and compared implied probability with how often each outcome really happened.
Key findings
- Across all probability bands with at least 30 matches, implied and actual frequencies differ by 1.6 percentage points on average. Bookmaker probabilities are close to reality.
- Largest gap in a band with 50+ matches: away win at 60–70% implied (51 matches): implied 64.2%, actual 70.6% (+6.4 points).
- Draws: implied 24.9% on average, actual 23.4%.
Differences inside a single band can be pure chance, especially with fewer than a few hundred matches. Read the table as a pattern, not as a list of exceptions.
Calibration chart
Each dot is a 10-point probability band (blue = home win, gold = draw, red = away win). Dot size reflects matches. A perfectly calibrated market lies on the dashed diagonal. Bands with fewer than 30 matches are hidden.
Detailed tables
Home win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 97 | 16.2% | 10.3% | -5.9 pts |
| 20–30% | 283 | 25.6% | 24.7% | -0.9 pts |
| 30–40% | 449 | 35.5% | 37.2% | +1.7 pts |
| 40–50% | 534 | 44.9% | 45.5% | +0.6 pts |
| 50–60% | 322 | 54.7% | 56.2% | +1.5 pts |
| 60–70% | 143 | 64.5% | 68.5% | +4.1 pts |
| 70–80% | 57 | 73.4% | 70.2% | -3.2 pts |
Draw
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 126 | 17.3% | 19.8% | +2.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 1770 | 25.5% | 23.6% | -1.9 pts |
Away win
| Implied probability | Matches | Avg implied | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 38 | 7.7% | 7.9% | +0.2 pts |
| 10–20% | 290 | 15.7% | 15.2% | -0.5 pts |
| 20–30% | 539 | 25.3% | 26.5% | +1.2 pts |
| 30–40% | 524 | 34.6% | 34.9% | +0.4 pts |
| 40–50% | 315 | 44.9% | 47.9% | +3.1 pts |
| 50–60% | 135 | 54.5% | 54.1% | -0.4 pts |
| 60–70% | 51 | 64.2% | 70.6% | +6.4 pts |
Method
For each match we take Bet365 pre-match decimal odds for home, draw and away and convert them to probabilities (1 / odds). Because bookmakers build in a margin, the three probabilities add to more than 100%, so we divide each by their sum (proportional margin removal; see our no-vig calculator). Matches are then grouped into 10-point bands of implied probability, and we count how often that outcome actually occurred.
See also Scottish League One results and goals by season. Updated 03 October 2026.